There are two direct carbon fluxes caused by human activity; fossil fuel combustion and land use change. As of now, carbon flux from fossil fuel combustion is alleviated somewhat by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere. Out of the two types of fluxes, land use change is of uncertain magnitude. Land use change is largely due to tropical deforestation. There are a few different figures for determining land use carbon flux but there is not a consensus on which is correct.
Some reasoning for the uncertainty regarding land use change is that deforestation occurs at different rates. A second reason is the variation in what happens to the land after it is deforested. Depending on the level of vegetation, different amounts of carbon will be fluxed. There are also differing outcomes for soil that has been deforested. The last reason is the different levels of biomass in the forests to begin with. Because of the varying spatial distribution of the forests, determining a universal system is very difficult. The amount of uncertainty surrounding land use change is a problem for understanding climate change and predicting future problems.
Monday, February 22, 2010
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